Can the Nintendo Wii Outsell the Playstation 2?

The Nintendo Wii is setting sales record. In just one year, the system has sold an astonishing 20 million units. But does the Nintendo Wii have enough legs to catch the Playstation 2, which at last count sold 120 million units? Let’s look at a couple of determining factors.

Why it will: the Nintendo Wii is already outselling the Playstation 2

The Wii is the best selling home console of all time. At this pace, it will take the Wii six years to reach the same sales plateau the Playstation 2 took seven years to reach.

Why it won’t: “the Wii is a fad” stigma

Despite selling like hotcakes, the Nintendo Wii is still considered a fad. The console is often viewed as to having substandard graphics and gimmicky motion controls. Having many shovelware games doesn’t help its perception either. Because of this stigma, many aren’t expecting the Wii to have a long enough life span to catch the Playstation 2.  The gamers in Playstation will be provided with consoleboost option. The console of the game will be in the hands of the person.

Why it will: non-gamers

They are called the “non-gamers.” These people have never touched a video game controller before nor will they ever be interested in one. Nintendo did the impossible and managed to tap into this market with games like Wii Sports. As a result, the Wii has a first-mover advantage in a market filled with unlimited potential.

Why it won’t: hardcore gamers

Studies have shown that hardcore gamers buy the most games. Aside from Nintendo games, the selection is slim for the pickings. Even worse, many third-party developers would rather put casual games on the Wii rather than games catering to the hardcore. Despite similar sales number, the Wii is far cry from the Playstation 2 in terms of hardcore games. The Wii has yet to win the hardcore crowd over.

Why it will: the Nintendo Wii is still selling out

More than a year after release, you still can’t walk in a store and buy one. The demand is still higher than supply despite the fact that Nintendo is producing more units than ever before. Although this could be both a blessing and a curse, the Wii will end up outselling the Playstation 2 as long as Nintendo can keep up the current stream (provided the demand keeps up).

Why it won’t: the Playstation 2 still selling

Eight years after release, the Playstation 2 is still selling and it shows no sign of slowing down. It is selling hundreds of thousands in the U.S alone. The Playstation 2 received a second gear, from of all places, the emergence of the non-gamers market.

Why it will: the Nintendo DS factor

The Nintendo DS is the portable equivalent of the Nintendo Wii. They go hand-in-hand. Its install base is astronomical and is growing just as fast as the Nintendo Wii. The number of converts from the Nintendo DS could be potentially huge.

Why it won’t: Nintendo Wii won’t malfunction as much as the Playstation 2

The Nintendo Wii is built solidly. That may be good for consumers but it will be bad in the sense of catching the Playstation 2 in sales. The Playstation 2, especially in the earlier days, suffers from the dreaded Disc Read Error. Although there are no solid numbers on the contribution of “replacement” systems have on the overall sales of the Playstation 2, it is definitely a factor.

Why it will: price point

The Playstation 2 launched at $299.99 while the Nintendo Wii launched at $249.99. Factor in inflation and the Nintendo Wii has a price advantage against the Playstation 2 at the same point in each console’s respective life cycle. Like the Playstation 2, expect the sales for the Wii to really take off once the price point reaches $199.99.

Why it won’t: tough competition

The Playstation 2 had no real threat compared to what the Nintendo Wii is facing. The industry is bigger than ever before with six video game systems ripping up the sales chart: Nintendo Wii, Nintendo DS, PSP, Playstation 2, Playstation 3 and Xbox 360. The market is healthy enough, even in a recession, to support all consoles. However, one got to wonder if the Nintendo Wii can gain enough market shares to catch the Playstation 2.

The Nintendo Wii has a lot going for it; at the same time, it also has a number of setbacks. There are simply too many wildcard factors in order to determine as to whether or not it will outsell the Playstation 2. We will just have to wait and see.